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# Computer Program RISKCOST

### Project Risk Cost Analysis by Monte Carlo Method

This computer program, called RISKCOST, is designed to handle analysis of project risk according to the statistical probability method known as the Monte Carlo Simulation. RISKCOST deals only with the analysis part of the project risks. For data entry purposes, the program is interfaced with another application, such as ENGRISK, that deals in detail with project risk evaluation and risk matters tracking. RISKCOST automatically extracts data from the ENGRISK program.

### Why to use RISKCOST?

You should use RISKCOST because:>

• RISKCOST can do what the ENGRISK program cannot do. Namely, RISKCOST can show the most probable cost of the risk in the range of assumed probabilities, and that if form of standard probability and risk curves and relevant reports.
• RISKCOST is the very easy tool for performing the Monte Carlo Analysis. Data already existing in the database of ENGRISK can be utilized directly without any additional input, and then individually redefined by the user within the RISKCOST domain.

### What kind of simulations are available?

• Simulations for individual Risk Elements.Here one run involves all risk elements, but each element is handled individually, yielding standard deviation, average cost, maximum cost, minimum costs, the z-score, and number of hits, with number of simulation occurrences up to 32,000. This analysis is done under the assumption that that each risk element must occur and that correlation does not apply. The power cubic curve (i.e. non-linear) is assumed for the risk distribution, fitting the cost values of Basic Cost, Assumed Minimum Cost at p=1%, and Assumed Maximum Cost at p=1% - i.e. reflecting the input data assumptions. The execution time of this analysis is very short: only 5 seconds for 30,000 samples generated for one risk element.
• Simulation Scenarios for the whole Project. The run involves all risk elements combined. Correlation between individual risk elements can be defined as ABSOLUTE, PARTIAL or NONE. The final risk element value (cost) will vary in each simulation according to the user-assigned probability of the risk element involved. The sum of the risk element values (costs) of each simulation represents one possible project cost outcome. These outcomes are used by the program to calculate the standard deviation and other analysis output parameters such as average cost, maximum cost, minimum costs, cost at p=5%, cost at p=1%, the z-score. The number of simulation outcomes in one scenario can be up to 32,000, with any number of scenarios.
• Analysis yields risk curves and standard probability curves for each scenario. They allow the project risk engineer to assess the most probable project risk cost for any given probability. In addition, similar result are also provided for the Mean Scenario, that is one comprising average values of all individual scenarios generated previously and stored in the database of the project.
• Execution time of this analysis varies depending on the number of risk elements and the number of samples. Approximately 13 minutes are needed to perform this Monte-Carlo analysis for 36 risk elements and 1,000 samples; or 2 hours and 10 minutes for 10,000 samples, or as much as 6 hours and 30 minutes for 30,000 samples.

### Who will benefit from using RISKCOST?

Project risk managers, project managers, regulatory authorities, clients and any party or person who is interested to see the project risk expressed in the probability versus monetary form.

### Where and when to use RISKCOST?

On any project that requires presentation of project risk in form or probability curves and related reports.

### How to use RISKCOST?

It is a very user-friendly computer program, comprising 24 screens and generating 21 types of reports. See our demonstration and review the user manual, both the printed one as well as the on-line one.

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